Monday, April 3, 2023

AGI in FLOSS can reverse engineering to be unkind if in the wrong hands, different proactive cyber defence approach is needed

Free and open-source software (FOSS) is a term used to refer to groups of software consisting of both free software and open-source software where anyone is freely licensed to use, copy, study, and change the software in any way, and the source code is openly shared so that people are encouraged to voluntarily improve the design of the software. This is in contrast to proprietary software, where the software is under restrictive copyright licensing and the source code is usually hidden from the users.

FOSS maintains the software user's civil liberty rights. Other benefits of using FOSS can include decreased software costs, increased security and stability (especially in regard to malware), protecting privacy, education, and giving users more control over their own hardware. Free and open-source operating systems such as Linux and descendants of BSD are widely utilized today, powering millions of serversdesktops, smartphones (e.g., Android), and other devices. Free-software licenses and open-source licenses are used by many software packages. The free software movement and the open-source software movement are online social movements behind widespread production and adoption of FOSS, with the former preferring to use the terms FLOSS or free/libre.

Security and user-support

According to Linus's law the more people who can see and test a set of code, the more likely any flaws will be caught and fixed quickly. However, this does not guarantee a high level of participation. Having a grouping of full-time professionals behind a commercial product can in some cases be superior to FOSS.

Furthermore, publicized source code might make it easier for hackers to find vulnerabilities in it and write exploits. This however assumes that such malicious hackers are more effective than white hat hackers which responsibly disclose or help fix the vulnerabilities, that no code leaks or exfiltrations occur and that reverse engineering of proprietary code is a hindrance of significance for malicious hackers.

Hardware and software compatibility

Sometimes, FOSS is not compatible with proprietary hardware or specific software. This is often due to manufacturers obstructing FOSS such as by not disclosing the interfaces or other specifications needed for members of the FOSS movement to write drivers for their hardware - for instance as they wish customers to run only their own proprietary software or as they might benefit from partnerships.

Bugs and missing features

While FOSS can be superior to proprietary equivalents in terms of software features and stability, in many cases it has more unfixed bugs and missing features when compared to similar commercial software. This varies per case, and usually depends on the level of interest in a particular project. However, unlike close-sourced software, improvements can be made by anyone who has the motivation, time and skill to do so

Future AI might possess Superintelligence agent

Artificial intelligence (AI) is intelligence demonstrated by machines, as opposed to intelligence of humans and other animals. Example tasks in which this is done include speech recognition, computer vision, translation between (natural) languages, as well as other mappings of inputs.

AI applications include advanced web search engines (e.g., Google Search), recommendation systems (used by YouTubeAmazon, and Netflix), understanding human speech (such as Siri and Alexa), self-driving cars (e.g., Waymo), generative or creative tools (ChatGPT and AI art), automated decision-making, and competing at the highest level in strategic game systems (such as chess and Go)

Superintelligence

A superintelligence, hyperintelligence, or superhuman intelligence, is a hypothetical agent that would possess intelligence far surpassing that of the brightest and most gifted human mind. Superintelligence may also refer to the form or degree of intelligence possessed by such an agent.

If research into artificial general intelligence produced sufficiently intelligent software, it might be able to reprogram and improve itself. The improved software would be even better at improving itself, leading to recursive self-improvement. Its intelligence would increase exponentially in an intelligence explosion and could dramatically surpass humans. Science fiction writer Vernor Vinge named this scenario the "singularity". Because it is difficult or impossible to know the limits of intelligence or the capabilities of superintelligent machines, the technological singularity is an occurrence beyond which events are unpredictable or even unfathomable.

Bad actors and weaponized AI

AI provides a number of tools that are particularly useful for authoritarian governments: smart spywareface recognition and voice recognition allow widespread surveillance; such surveillance allows machine learning to classify potential enemies of the state and can prevent them from hiding; recommendation systems can precisely target propaganda and misinformation for maximum effect; deepfakes aid in producing misinformation; advanced AI can make centralized decision making more competitive with liberal and decentralized systems such as markets.

Terrorists, criminals and rogue states may use other forms of weaponized AI such as advanced digital warfare and lethal autonomous weapons. By 2015, over fifty countries were reported to be researching battlefield robots.

Existential risk

Superintelligent AI may be able to improve itself to the point that humans could not control it. This could, as physicist Stephen Hawking puts it, "spell the end of the human race". Philosopher Nick Bostrom argues that sufficiently intelligent AI, if it chooses actions based on achieving some goal, will exhibit convergent behavior such as acquiring resources or protecting itself from being shut down. If this AI's goals do not fully reflect humanity's, it might need to harm humanity to acquire more resources or prevent itself from being shut down, ultimately to better achieve its goal. He concludes that AI poses a risk to mankind, however humble or "friendly" its stated goals might be. Political scientist Charles T. Rubin argues that "any sufficiently advanced benevolence may be indistinguishable from malevolence." Humans should not assume machines or robots would treat us favorably because there is no a priori reason to believe that they would share our system of morality

 

Reverse engineering in source code can change future war

Reverse engineering (also known as backwards engineering or back engineering) is a process or method through which one attempts to understand through deductive reasoning how a previously made device, process, system, or piece of software accomplishes a task with very little (if any) insight into exactly how it does so. It is essentially the process of opening up or dissecting a system to see how it works, in order to duplicate or enhance it. Depending on the system under consideration and the technologies employed, the knowledge gained during reverse engineering can help with repurposing obsolete objects, doing security analysis, or learning how something works.

Although the process is specific to the object on which it is being performed, all reverse engineering processes consist of three basic steps: Information extraction, Modeling, and Review. Information extraction refers to the practice of gathering all relevant information for performing the operation. Modeling refers to the practice of combining the gathered information into an abstract model, which can be used as a guide for designing the new object or system. Review refers to the testing of the model to ensure the validity of the chosen abstract.

Military applications

Reverse engineering is often used by people to copy other nations' technologies, devices, or information that have been obtained by regular troops in the fields or by intelligence operations. It was often used during the Second World War and the Cold War. Here are well-known examples from the Second World War and later:

·         Panzerschreck: The Germans captured an American bazooka during the Second World War and reverse engineered it to create the larger Panzerschreck.

·         Tupolev Tu-4: In 1944, three American B-29 bombers on missions over Japan were forced to land in the Soviet Union. The Soviets, who did not have a similar strategic bomber, decided to copy the B-29. Within three years, they had developed the Tu-4, a nearly-perfect copy.

·         V-2 rocket: Technical documents for the V-2 and related technologies were captured by the Western Allies at the end of the war. The Americans focused their reverse engineering efforts via Operation Paperclip, which led to the development of the PGM-11 Redstone rocket. The Soviets used captured German engineers to reproduce technical documents and plans and worked from captured hardware to make their clone of the rocket, the R-1. Thus began the postwar Soviet rocket program, which led to the R-7 and the beginning of the space race.

·         China has reversed engineered many examples of Western and Russian hardware, from fighter aircraft to missiles and HMMWV cars, such as the MiG-15,17,19,21 (which became the J-2,5,6,7) and the Su-33 (which became the J-15). More recent analyses of China's military growth have pointed to the inherent limitations of habitual reverse engineering for advanced weapon systems.

·         During the Second World War, British scientists analyzed and defeated a series of increasingly-sophisticated radio navigation systems used by the Luftwaffe to perform guided bombing missions at night. The British countermeasures to the system were so effective that in some cases, German aircraft were led by signals to land at RAF bases since they believed that they had returned to German territory.

 

Proactive cyber defence is the highest priority

Proactive cyber defence means acting in anticipation to oppose an attack through cyber and cognitive domains. Proactive cyber defence can be understood as options between offensive and defensive measures. It includes interdicting, disrupting or deterring an attack or a threat's preparation to attack, either pre-emptively or in self-defence. Common methods include cyber deception, attribution, threat hunting and adversarial pursuit. The mission of the pre-emptive and proactive operations is to conduct aggressive interception and disruption activities against an adversary using: psychological operations, managed information dissemination, precision targeting, information warfare operations, computer network exploitation, and other active threat reduction measures. The proactive defense strategy is meant to improve information collection by stimulating reactions of the threat agents and to provide strike options as well as to enhance operational preparation of the real or virtual battlespace. Proactive cyber defence can be a measure for detecting and obtaining information before a cyber attack, or it can also be impending cyber operation and be determining the origin of an operation that involves launching a pre-emptive, preventive, or cyber counter-operation.

The offensive capacity includes the manipulation and/or disruption of networks and systems with the purpose of limiting or eliminating the adversary's operational capability. This capability can be required to guarantee one's freedom of action in the cyber domain. Cyber-attacks can be launched to repel an attack (active defence) or to support the operational action. Proactive cyber defence differs from active defence, meaning that it is pre-emptive (not waiting for an attack to occur). The distinction between active cyber defence and offensive cyber operations (OCO) is that the later requires legislative exceptions to undertake. Hence, offensive cyber capabilities may be developed in collaboration with industry and facilitated by private sector. But, these operations are often led by nation-states.
 
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